HTC Corp. (2498.TW)n宏達���研究報�� | 正通投資團隊 投資台股���專家 Ti Amazing Network Marketing Szh Tag Discrimination A Legard Des Noirs Network Marketing

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Buy
3Q inline;redemption pressure shouldn’t stop HTC’s positive outlook

以下是高盛證券(Goldman Sachs)於10/7對宏達電(2498)所出具的研究報告摘要：

What’s changed
HTC Corp. reported Sep. sales and 3Q08 preliminary net earnings after Monday’s market close. Despite some shipment postponements caused by typhoon, Sep. and 3Q sales came in at NT$13.7bn (+8% mom, +30% yoy) and NT$37.9bn (+9.4% qoq, +30% yoy), respectively, in line with mgmt guidance. Net earnings came in 4-5% less than street/GS estimates, likely from lower than expected Forex gains due to the weakening Euro; the company will provide a detailed 3Q breakdown, as well as 4Q guidance at its
Oct. 30th analysts meeting. In addition, the company continues to expect 2008 sales to reach the high end of its guidance range (+20% to 30%).

Implications
We attribute recent share price weakness mainly to redemption pressure rather than due to fundamental reasons. We also believe it is misleading to tie recent woes at Apple and RIM directly to HTC’s outlook, as HTC not only addresses more diversified end segments but also has a timelier/ broader product portfolio. Inevitably, near term de-rating has occurred amid the sharp index correction; we believe re-rating will soon begin as we head in to a potentially strong 4Q (GSE +30% qoq revenue growth). Additionally, we believe a long term re-rating process remains as HTC continues to innovate and scale up. We conservatively fine tune our 08E-10E earnings estimates by -4%/ +3%/ +9% to factor in margin trends from Android & ODM percentage; Despite potentially strong growth ahead from dual mobile platforms Windows Mobile and Android, we revise our 2009E revenue estimate up by only 5% to reflect macro concerns. We slightly lower our 12-m PEbased TP to NT620 (12X 2009E) from NT660 (16X 2008E). Maintain Buy.

Valuation
HTC currently trades at 10.5X/ 8X 08E/ 09E GAAP EPS, approximately a 40% discount to the global peer median.

Key risks
Intensified competition from global peers.

INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
Asia Pacific Buy List

此份報告指出，雖然宏達電Q3的營收略低於市場預期，但宏達電高層對於該公司08年的營收成長預估(+20%~30%)仍有信心達成，換言之，Q4不會受到全球金融風暴的影響，出現營收大幅度下滑的可能。高盛仍然維持宏達電的買進評等，但稍微調降目標價至TWD $620元，除了對宏達電Q4的營收表現仍具信心外，對於09年宏達電的營收與獲利成長趨勢，高盛認為宏達電仍具備profit momentum.

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